Evaluation Methodology of the Multiplier Effect for the Region as the Result of the cluster Formation

The article defines the importance of sea and river cruises. Shows the dynamics of the development of the cruise of the cluster. It is proved that Russia has enough potential. There is a possibility of development of sea and river cruise tourism. It is noted that the state of the domestic cruise market has deteriorated significantly. It was determined that for the domestic market of cruise tourism there are a number of problems that hinder effective work. The most serious of these are: conceptual basis and structure of the internal market river cruise tourism, the absence of a state regulatory framework. You need to adjust the evaluation of the effectiveness of the cruise market. The authors propose a method of assessing socio-economic efficiency. Developed a mechanism to enable companies in the cluster. Assesses the multiplier effect for the region due to the formation of clusters. A comprehensive approach to the problem of domestic cruise tourism is possible by the formation of tourism clusters in the regions. World practice shows that forming of tourist cluster will give impetus to the development of the region.


INTRODUCTION
The cruise tourism is known as a transportation of people by water with the organization of leisure, food, and placement.The participation of the Government of the with a huge cultural and historical and natural potential [7].In 2010 Russia took the 5th place among 139 countries on natural and climatic conditions and the 13th place on cultural historic heritage.Having such resources, the statistics of Russian participation in the world cruise tourism and in developing of the state revenues looks very sadly.Internal cruise tourism takes the insignificant place in the domestic tourist market.On data of the state committee of statistics, the income from tourism constitutes about 7% (taking into account multiplicative effect) and about 4% of net tourism in domestic GDP.Domestic cruise tourism is almost imperceptible in the world cruise industry.Despite pessimistic statistics, it should be noted that the sales volume of a cruise tourist product on the Volga River has been rising till 2005 growth constituted 10% a year, from 2006 to 2010 growth constituted 15-25% a year, now the indicator has decreased and constitutes about 12% a year.According to Rostourism, the number of transportations across the waterways of Russia annually increases for 3-5%, the main share of this surplus is constituted by the tourists traveling around the Volga, Ladoga and Onega rivers.The share of the foreign tourists traveling around the rivers of Russia constitutes about 10%.Give a socio-economic evaluation of the effectiveness of funzionavano clusters.

LITERATURE REVIEW
The option of the domestic cruise tourism expansion through developing a tourist cluster is offered by the authors of the article.The concept of a cluster has appeared as the key idea of increasing in competitiveness and economic development of separate types of activity and whole regions in the last decade.With the growth of knowledge about clusters, they became the prevailing element of the national and regional economic development.Implementation of various cluster initiatives is happening in all world regions, and their number is constantly growing.These initiatives are characterized by the variety of forms and now are the commonly accepted part of economic development.In many industrially developed world regions, the high competitiveness of economy is connected with the availability of specific forms of cooperation accounting entities.One of the forms of such cooperation are clusters which can be determined as a group of the companies spatially adjoining, competing and cooperating with themselves and the related organizations working in the specific area for the purpose of achievement of synergy effect.A synergistic effect may be reinforced if the information can be presented in an interactive form."Information and documentation is summarized in a single database" -thus describes the economic effect of the application of modern technologies in the dissertation research of S.V. Veretekhina [8].The experience of developed countries shows that clusters are the most effective and flexible structures in the conditions of the market relations which capable to create a system of competitive advantages of the participating companies.Two principlescooperation and the competition are the cornerstones of a cluster developing.
It can be identified three methods of a cluster's influence on competing: • by improving the productivity of the companies in the cluster; • by developing and increasing an innovative ability in the companies -participants of a cluster; • through stimulation of development of the new types of business supporting innovations and expanding cluster boundaries.
Each of three methods of a cluster influence on the competition depends on a certain extent on interpersonal relations, personal contacts and the interaction between different organizations forming a cluster.Highly-competitive business environment sets its own requirements [9].In specialized literature, the definition of 'a cluster' has some discrepancies, but all of them contain the principal general sign: combining separate elements into one whole for execution a certain function or implementation of a definite purpose in interaction.There are different interpretations of the term 'a cluster' and it is conditionally possible to divide them into two groups: supporters of the first group focus attention on a geographical component as a cluster basis, proponents of the second group read that "the geographical component" of a cluster isn't so important.If we speak about an application of the cluster theory in cruise tourism, without any doubts it is definitely necessary to consider the opinion of the first group of scientists, i.e. the idea that the basis of a cruise tourist cluster is a combining of elements on the basis of geographical closeness.Cluster, being network structure by nature as form of cooperation has the specific features: 1. the geographical proximity of a location of cluster subjects; 2. the high intensity of various relations between the subjects belonging to one cluster; 3. heterogeneity of the interacted entities interacted: the business creating the added value, the research and training institutes, non-profit organizations, administration authorities, etc.; 4. nature of relations between typical market relations subjects participating in a cluster (formal and informal forms of relations); 5. taking advantage of a joint arrangement and cooperation within a group of companies; 6. formed part of the vision of an economic development orientation of the cluster's area.
Based on studying the leading world and domestic experts works in the field of clusters researching whose experience of clusters researching is begun at the end of the 20th century.Development of simulation model allows to evaluate the business [10,11].Methodical recommendations about implementation of cluster policy in northern subjects of the Russian Federation, 2008, Cluster specialization patterns and innovation styles, 1998, Porter 1998, authors taking into account the purpose and a task of article determined a cluster as the group of geographically adjoining and interconnected companies and the organizations acting in area convening and rendering tourist cruise services created on territorial concentration of networks of the specialized suppliers connected among themselves by production and technological and other relations and having a certain extent of standardization [12].Cluster structures were revealed in many world countries.The analysis of international experience of clusters allowed outlining 5 main models forming of clusters: • the Italian cluster model assumes consolidation of a large number of small and medium-sized companies into various associations for increasing the competitiveness of achievement of synergy effect; • the Japanese cluster model is created around the large company (leading company) with large-scale production; • the Finnish cluster model is characterized by the high level of innovations, and it is supported by powerful researching and developing sector with the advanced education system; • North American cluster model (differs in the expressed cooperation and the competition between the entities which are the participants of a cluster; • the Indian-Chinese cluster model; a key role in forming of such model plays the state and state regulation.
Considering specifics of the cruise tourism functioning for establishing a tourist cluster, it is reasonable to consider the Japanese model of forming of a cluster which assumes consolidation around leading company.The cruise operator brings together around himself the companies and the entities which activities are necessary for the creation of a quality, attractiveness, and competitiveness of tourist cruise product.
The methodology of a cluster's job evaluation is developed by authors.The methodological basis constitutes the methods including assessment of multiplicative effect for the region as a result of a cluster foundation.The multiplicative effect is an economic component which is expressed by the animation coefficient showing the dependence of scope change of production and a national income in the form of a surplus of the income and employment.In a tourist cluster, the initial investment is aimed at its development.Investments into a tourist industry result in the multiplicative effect of employment, namely, in the tourist field for the region.The investments thrown in the cluster development will lead to a growth of a national income as they will cause a chain reaction in the form of the income and employment surplus.Let's assume that the initial investment constitutes 1 billion rubles and it is aimed at a tourist cluster development, not requiring funds in means of production.Increase in the income for 1 billion rubs is the result for those who enclosed the production factor (labor power) in the case.People can dispose of the growth of income differently, distributing on a surplus of consumption and a saving in a certain proportion.Supposing, that savings disappear from economic circulation, then the consumed part of the income surplus goes to the consumer market, including the purchase of food, goods, services.Let's assume that the growth of income makes up 800 million rubles, then 200 thousand rubles are saved up, and MPS=0, 8. Expenses of one market cluster subject are interconnected with another.
For example, having received 800 million rubles in a river truism the subject directs some of the money to a coastal pier construction, covering a new point.At the same time, 640 thousand rubles go to the equipment development of the pier, and 160 thousand are preserved (in case of MPS = 0,2), etc.The growth of a national income caused by initial investments will constitute the amount including summer: 1000+800+640 +, etc.We From the above modeling, it is possible to draw the following conclusions.The higher marginal propensity to consume, the more is possible development of national income in case of a surplus of initial investments.So, if all income surplus turns into savings (that for the unemployed is unreal), then MPS = 0, k = 1, and the national income will grow exactly as much as how many investments increased.If in general savings are non-existent (MPS=1), then the rising rate of a national income approaches infinity.The reality is 0 < k < 1.
It, therefore, follows that all factors influencing MPS (income distribution in society, inflation, trust to the power, etc.), make an impact at the animator's size as well.Graphically: the more is MPS, the more is the function (curve) SS and the less is animator, and vice versa.Nor can it be assumed that the effect of the animator in any its value has positive effect on the economy.The animator is a double-edged sword.The negative return "effect" has a distinct possibility as a result of the recession of investment activity, and the repeated losses of a national income are inevitable (in our example fivefold losses).The effect of the animator is felt not in any economy but only if there is an unoccupied labour and not used production capacities.Only in this case, there is possible a "cheap" increasing of production volume due to insignificant additional investments.The tourist cluster growths the multiplicative employment effect, in the field of regional tourism that provides an income surplus and employment of the population.

The analysis of the factors influencing development of a tourist cluster in the region
Tourist clusters are an important component of the modern tourist market.From the intrinsic point of view, the tourist cluster is the concentrated in a certain territory group of the interdependent enterprises of the tourist area, interacting and complementary each other during the creation of a complex tourist product in this territory.Speaking about a cruise tourist cluster, special attention should be paid to the formation of stable relations between the enterprises of different fields of activity providing quality and reliability during all the cruise tour [13].Recognizing the beneficial influence of cluster growth on the tourism development in the region and on the benefit brought to its participants, it is necessary to define factors which have an influence on their development.These factors share on static and dynamic.By reviewing static factors which concern the characteristic of the tourist region: tourism infrastructures, varieties of the offered entertainments and occupations, sightseeing's, adjacent and auxiliary sectors, it is necessary to understand that they are compulsory, but not sufficient condition for the tourist cluster development.These factors can't be changed in the short term; therefore, they can't be used as tools for the active development of a tourist cluster.Dynamic factors are a combination of factors influenced the internal structure, and consequently, on an activity of a tourist cluster development.The scientific literature analysis and the whole world tourist cluster initiatives allow revealing the following main dynamic factors of a tourist cluster development.
1.The necessity of the cluster coordination and the management that is expressed in forming of the local industry associations uniting the tourist business operating in this territory.This factor, in essence, will work only at the request of participants inside clusters because the strong management is the basic condition for adjustment cooperation between the companies.Practice showed that lack of the strong management was considered as the main obstacle to the development of a cluster initiative.
2. Development of cooperation between the entities connected with the cruise tourism organizations with the purpose of a cluster forming definitely requires support, first of all at the local (regional), but not governmental level.
3. The cooperation of the state and private sectors plays an essential role in forming competitiveness of the companies entering a cruise tourist cluster.Some companies delivering the services providing the cruise activities are a priori state (the companies relating to the organization of river economy).On the other hand, separate types of activity will develop more effectively, if they will be transferred to private hands.As the integrated system, in general, the tourist industry consists of the combination of all the important elements.There are full dot -areal and linear elements interact in the cruise tourism area.The first ones are provided by the companies and organizations of the service industry, the natural and cultural heritage objects.The second ones are the different types of the transport and special communications providing interaction of dot and areal elements in case of accomplishment of their functions.Studying the total acts of such communications is the most difficult, almost insoluble task as it is impossible to provide the collection of all necessary information, and the corresponding researching methods aren't developed.Therefore consideration of separate elements is usually carried out.Interaction of dot and areal elements is determined by their quality characteristics that allow dismembering set of such elements on components according to the carried-out functions.The analysis shows that there are elements provided activities of all cluster.For a tourist cluster forming, an important role is played by communications between its elements.Allocation of specific types of communications is performed on the basis of the analysis of processes of the specialization, cooperation, and combination.Moreover, it is necessary to take into account regional features of the tourist demand and supply.It is accepted to allocate the following types of communications among the main: • the organizational and managerial communications directed to the creation conditions for the development of tourist clusters; • communications during operation the tourist and recreational resources of the region; • communications on providing the functioning of tourist infrastructure and usage of a tourist product; • communications on a usage of tourist infrastructure; • communications on a usage of a manpower (skilled labor force); • communications on preparation and advanced training of a personnel.
Thus, for creating a tourist cluster, it is necessary to determine the organizations, the companies, and the entities which need to include in the created cluster and to determine the system of interrelations between them.

Implementation of a cluster initiative in the region
Basing on domestic and foreign experience [14,15,16,17], it is possible to formulate a technique implementation of a cluster initiative in the region.Socio-economic study can be done using the following methods.The technique represents five stages process of determination the structure, establishing, development and activities of a tourist cluster: First stage.It is being made the assessment and the analysis of a condition and prospects of the region from the point of view of opportunities of a tourist cluster establishment.Their actual benefit defines and articulates but their implementation will promote increasing in competitiveness of the territory.Identification of restraining factors, reasons of their origin and extent of influence on region competitiveness is performed.
Second stage.Designing of a local tourist cluster is being implemented by means of marketing researches, statistical and other methods of the analysis.It is necessary to carry out the complex assessment of the chosen locality, thanks to this not only the existing problems will be determined, but the reasons of their origin prospects for development as well.
Third stage.Development of a cluster initiative in the region is provided.At this stage, it is necessary to define not only the purposes and tasks facing a local tourist (cruise) cluster but also the main participants of a cluster and their function.Effective functioning of a local tourist cluster requires the creation of coordinating bodies which would bring together both local authorities operation and representatives business of community participate.At the same time, it is necessary to observe the principle of equality and voluntariness of an entrance of the companies to a cluster.The organization process of the activities of a cluster and its functioning shall be reflected in this stage.
Fourth stage.Designing process of a local tourist cluster activities includes the development of the program events system, i.e. consolidated appeals of compilations of a cluster participants.This complex should be based upon the goals and targets posed to a cluster.The complex should contain the most urgent proposals and activities for creation a legal, organizational and managerial, and economic environment favorable for further development of a regional tourist cluster.At the fourth stage the system of organizational, technical and scientific actions which implementation will create incentives and prerequisites for forming and development of a cluster should be determined.
Fifth stage.The economic assessment of the impact of a cluster activity on the competitiveness of economy of the region is carried out.The necessary amount of financing of the system of program actions, the extent of influence on economy competitiveness is determined, the forecast of expected growth of tax revenues in the budget and the income of the population from the implementation of implementable actions is made.

The program for the development of a tourist cluster
As a pilot project the program of a tourist cruise cluster forming is considered on one of the domestic cruise routes.The program will include the following events.1.To create the cluster agency in the region.
2. To do researches of opportunities for updating a river fleet and its infrastructure.
3. To develop the project of the information and analytical portal directed to promoting the Russian cruise tourism and cruise tourism in the region and in the world.
One of the preconditions of creating tourist water cluster is its state support.In case of the correct organization of the cluster agency activity, it is possible to achieve self-sufficiency and rather outstanding performance of an industry, however, it is necessary to have a support and participation of the regional and federal authorities.There are different forms of the state support: subsidies, tax benefits, state guarantees of transactions, etc.
Creation in the region of the cluster agency.
As a rule, implementation of cluster strategy assumes availability the funds providing grants (institutes, agencies) supporting the cluster initiatives.With the governmental assistance and support, it is necessary to create the regulatory body which will be engaged in the coordination of activity in all organizations directly or indirectly occupied in the organized process of the cruise services.The purpose of the cluster agency organization will be forming and development of a tourist cruise cluster in the specific region.The main objectives of the cluster agency will be: • analysis of a current status of a cruise industry, identification of the most vital issues and determination of its solutions; • integrating of regional cruise operators into one system; • competitive selection of the serving companies; • the organization of cooperation between the companies inside a cluster; • quality control of the current status of the providing organizations; • provision of guarantees during the transactions; • quality control of cruise services; • participation in the attraction of private investments into regional cruise tourism; • establishing of information support system of a cruise tourism; • participation in a security system developing on the river transport; • development of the standard legal documents providing regional cruise tourism.
Originally the Agency is created at the expense of the federal and regional budget and after its foundation, it will function due to expel of a cluster participants and its own income from a development of cruise tourism program implementation.
The result of the Agency activities should become: • upgrading and updating of a cruise industry in the Volga region; • improving of domestic internal cruise tourism image; • increasing a tourist flow in the Volga region; • growing of the direct and indirect regional income from cruise tourism; • an investment attraction to the region.
The second item of the offered program is a necessity of researching the opportunities of the passenger cruise fleet updating.The most serious problem interfering development of the domestic river cruise market is the river passenger fleet which is not only morally but also physically obsolete.Many vessels are more than 50 years old and they are not in conformity with modern requirements on the safety, environmental sustainability, aesthetics, etc. Development of cruise tourism is impossible without new vessels.Undoubtedly, the need to acquire new, modern, comfortable passenger ships is important.The production of modern cruise ships is developed in such European countries as Italy, Austria, and Hungary.However, the acquisition of such high-comfortable ferries is rather complicated for the Russian companies.The cost of such vessels is 40 -45 million euros.Furthermore, taking into account the European sanctions their acquisition is significantly complicated.With regard to domestic manufacturers, almost all shipyards making cruise motor ships built during the Soviet period are in a deplorable state.The unique Russian company designing the paddle vessels 'Architectural and Technical Designing' offers new types of paddle rowing vessels to the Russian water tourism market.Characteristics of the 'Golden Ring' and 'Sura' projects meet relevant safety standards, profitability, ecological compatibility, comfortableness, have low landing and capable of going on the rivers with small depth.The 'Golden Ring' project vessels (passenger capacity to 172 people) and the 'Sura' project (passenger capacity of 40 people) will cost the customer of 6, 8 million euros and 800 thousand euros respectively.It is 5,5 -6 times cheaper than the foreign proceeding vessels.The domestic cruise operators and the companies being ship-owners aren't able to afford acquisition even of the vessels now, because of low profitability the acquisition payback period even one "Golden Ring" ship can constitute up to 20 years, and if we take into account an unstable situation in the market, it is too high risk for the company.The most balanced solution to the problem in this specific situation can become the acquisition of vessels by leasing system.In this regard, the cluster agency can act as the guarantor of the transaction.The leasing schemes will give the chance to update the Volga passenger fleet in short time frame, to increase its number.Moreover, it will give a strong impetus for renewing and developing the domestic passenger shipbuilding.The third event of the program is the creation of the regional information cruise tourism portal.The essence of this event is the creation of an information resource devoted to cruise tourism in the region.The modern consumer of tourist services attaches great importance to the possibility to get the maximum quantity interesting information using preferably only one information resource.The information portal will enable to unite information from all regional cruise operators and to give exhaustive information which can be useful to the tourist planning to purchase a cruise Volga tour.The ability for searching, comparison, and booking of cruise tours should become the basic option of the created the Internet resource.As additional information there should be provided the following blocks or headings on the website: 1. the unit for searching and selection cruises with the set characteristics; 2. the unit for booking of cruises (with additional and accompanying services); 3. information on activities the State corporation "Agency on the Organization of Cruise Tourism in the Volga Region"; 4. recommendations to documentary and tourist visa support; 5. climatic characteristic region; 6. cultural and historical regional objects; 7. history of the regional cruise tourism development; 8. information accordingly the hospitality industry entities within a cluster, their services, and the working schedule; 9. information accordingly the food entities and the catering companies providing the cruise ships service; 10. information on the entities rendering additional services to cruise tourists: medical, financial, insurance and other institutions; 11. topical news of the region.
Development the offered information resource is also supposed to be conducted by the cluster agency.The main task here will be developing the structure of information resource, filling by its urgent information, timely updating of the information, starting reservation system and supply of a resource in so-called TOP-10.It is very important that this resource finally would be launched to the international level for promoting of the Russian cruise tourism in the world and to facilitate access to domestic river cruise tourism as for local, so foreign tourists.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
Social significance of the work of the clusters is determined by the following directions [18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25]. In spite of the fact that it is considered the cluster models are generally used in a working environment, but they also have positive effect in the service industry.The companies providing services and operating within clusters get the advantages similar to benefits of the companies functioning in industry.Clusters are actively formed in the tourist area.The essence of tourist marketing is that the services are usually provided by specialized enterprises in this sector.It assumes the need for their cooperation to create and render such tourist service that the modern tourist wants to receive.The tourism development is quite possible on the basis of cluster approach.In many parts of the world, cluster initiatives have become a basis for tourism growth.The development of tourist clusters is substantially under the influence of natural, cultural and geographical factor of the region.As a rule, tourist clusters arise and develop in places where the corresponding natural potential for tourism development is available.Spatial localization of potential determines the tourist cluster placement.At the same time, such characteristics of natural and cultural values as scale and an attraction -determine the concentration of a cluster objects and its size measured by the subjects' number within a cluster providing services for tourists.Specificity of a cruise tourist product determines accomplishment of the main conditions stated in a cluster definition: representation degree and cooperation level of specialized enterprises.During the process of a cruise tour creation as a special tourist product, the companies providing specialized services are included: placement and movement on the floating vehicle (motor ship/line boat), ensuring autonomous activity on the cruise motor ship (line boat), with a given level of comfort, providing the combined additional services (transport, excursion, organizational, etc.).At the same time, the range and quality of additional services play a fundamental role with regard to forming the competitiveness of a tourist product.It can be observed an active multiplicative effect in regions with the highly developed level of tourism: developing the companies which are operating in adjacent sectors such as a building construction, trade, banking, insurance, a recreation, sport, and culture.Generally, there are various forms of cooperation between the companies in the form of professional associations in tourist areas [26].Regional authorities, scientific and educational institutions commonly participate in such regions in tourism development.All these organizations can be organized in conjunction into a tourist cluster and developed using benefits of synergy effect.Participants of a cluster are benefit from the relationship thanks to developing the regional tourist offer in the tourist market that sometimes is considered the main function of tourist clusters as leads to increasing number of tourist visits, and thus, stimulate demand for the services offered by participants of a cluster [27].Sources of competitive advantage an industrial cluster according to Porter are: 1. trading conditions including the condition of material resources and non-material sphere of production; 2. the strategy of the rivalry among companies determined by the regulatory framework, regional policy of economic development stimulation and the provisions governing types and intensity of the rivalry between the hospitality service entities; 3. demand conditions and responsiveness to customers ' needs which are pleased better, than in other places; 4. the degree of representation the main and related auxiliary sectors.
With regard to the tourism sector, one more is added to four the above sources of competitive advantage -location of a tourist destination [28].The questions connected with competitive advantages of these or those tourist areas should be insufficiently detailed within the concept of the tourist region and traditionally are considered within the geography of tourism and regional policy.These elements are demand conditions, the state of development of the main and auxiliary sectors servicing the tourists, and also economic activity conditions of the specific tourist destination.The proposed scenario of a cluster forming seems to be relevant for the cruise tourism development in regions of Russia.However, it is important to remember that river cruise tourism is tied to the large rivers of Russia: Volga, Irtysh, Lena, Yenisei, etc.Therefore, forming of the clusters aimed at the development of cruise tourism is possible in regions where these rivers are.
Summing up the results, it should be noted that at the present stage there is no mechanism allowing the uniting travel agencies in a cluster.Authors suggest using the mechanism developed by them.The primary objective of developing the mechanism is an identification of travel agencies which are reasonable for including in the created cluster considering the reached social and economic effect.In addition, the offered mechanism will allow the creating system of interrelations among the companies in a general cluster.
The mechanism of inclusion the companies in a cluster represents a combination of the main verification of: 1. the financial status of the company; 2. representation of the company in WEB SPACE; 3. communication availability for using information and communication technologies, 4. certificates of safety and labour protection on a water transport; 5. licenses presence on types of activity and additional services.
In addition, the mechanism of inclusion the companies in a cluster provides for a willingness of the applicant company to sign the agreement on cooperation.The existence of the legally significant agreement on cooperation will allow the applicant companies to share the responsibility for fulfillment of their obligations, having provided cumulative synergy effect.This mechanism is adequate as it is possible to implement independently some types of verifications.The open data are used for this purpose.For example, for checking of the organization by the form of activities can be used data of the Unified Federal Register of Tour operators.Each tourist and business partner has a possibility to check the legal personality and the registration certificate on the information portal.
The Unified Federal Register of Bankruptcy Information provides relevant data accordingly the bankrupt companies.In open register data, the court documents and the decisions taken at a meeting of creditors are represented.Open data of the Unified Federal Register of Bankruptcy Information are public.
designate MPS=0,2 through b, then the animator k is the sum of geometrical sequences: k=1+b+b+b+ …… First, let's multiply both sides of equal sign by b: bk = b + b = b + b + ...+ b Then let's subtract from the first equality the second: